UT Tyler Poll Reveals Texas Voters’ Views Ahead of March Primaries

February 27, 2026 | Hannah Buchanan

The University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research recently surveyed 1,117 Texas voters about their views ahead of the March 2026 primary election, with topics covering hypothetical political matchups and current state issues. In the survey conducted Feb. 13 – 22, 959 of those voters reached indicated they were “likely” or “certain” to vote in this primary election.

Primary Election Races

In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, Jasmine Crockett led James Talarico 58% to 37% among likely voters. “Despite the national attention this race has received, 43% of voters say they have only heard a little about what makes each candidate different from the other,” said Dr. Ken Wink, UT Tyler professor and interim center director. “The Democratic primary voters in this survey also indicated they believed Crockett would be as electable in the November general election as Talarico.”

In the Governor’s race, Gina Hinojosa led Chris Bell 59% to 25%, and in the race for Attorney General, Nathan Johnson led Joe Jaworski 35% to 32% among likely voters. “While it appears that Crockett and Hinojosa will avoid a run-off primary, Johnson and Jaworski will likely face off again in May in a run-off primary,” Wink said.

In the Republican primary, incumbent Senator John Cornyn led challenger Ken Paxton, 41% to 35% among likely voters. Assuming a May run-off between Cornyn and Paxton, supporters of Wesley Hunt, (currently polling at 15%), said they would prefer Paxton 57% to 37% if Hunt did not make the run-off, Wink noted.

“The results indicate that a May run-off primary for Senate on the Republican side would favor Cornyn over Paxton by approximately 3% of the vote, if Hunt supporters turn out to vote even if Hunt is not on the ballot,” he added.

The Attorney General race on the Republican side also appears to be headed for a run-off primary, as Chip Roy leads Mayes Middleton 36% to 26% among likely voters, Wink said. Supporters of third- place candidate Joan Huffman (currently at 21%) favor Mayes Middleton 33% to Chip Roy’s 23% as a second choice, assuming Ms. Huffman does not make the run-off. “The results indicate a relatively close May run-off primary, with Roy leading Middleton by roughly 8%, assuming voter turnout is similar to the March primary,” he added.

Hypothetical Matchups

The poll questions did not ask about head-to-head races for the Senate in the general election in November, however, Wink noted the pollsters did ask respondents about the perceived chances that their preferred candidates would win the general election.

“Republicans were very confident that either Cornyn or Paxton could win in November,” he said. “When asked what the chances would be that a candidate would win a hypothetical matchup in November, 62%-68% of likely Republican primary voters believed the Republican candidate would win at least 65% of the vote in four hypothetical matchups.”

Republicans also believed the closest race might be a Cornyn-Talarico matchup, but 69% of Republican-likely voters thought Cornyn would still win the general election comfortably (earning at least 55% of the vote). “Democratic primary voters were less confident, but still between 52% and 56% of them believed either Crockett or Talarico could win comfortably in November, with Talarico having a 2% better chance than Crockett to defeat a Republican in the general election,” Wink said.

In head-to-head hypothetical November general election races for Governor, registered voters favored incumbent Greg Abbott against either Democratic challenger, be it 49% to 41% over Gina Hinojosa or 51% to 39% over Chris Bell. In the race for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Dan Patrick maintains a 47% to 42% lead over challenger Vikki Goodwin.

“While it is a long way until November, with some run-off primaries likely in May, we see Republicans with slim leads over Democrats in hypothetical statewide general election matchups. On the one hand, self-reported Republicans still outnumber self-reported Democrats by 6% among likely voters,” Wink added. “Yet, inflation is now the number one issue in Texas, replacing border security as the top issue of concern –– this fact suggests this is not the year for Republicans to take voters for granted. On a more positive note for Republicans, though, there were 8% fewer respondents in this survey, compared to a survey taken one year ago, who said higher prices are having a major impact on their household.”

Visit the polling center website for more information about current and previous studies.

With a mission to improve educational and health care outcomes for East Texas and beyond, UT Tyler offers more than 90 undergraduate and graduate programs to more than 11,500 students. Through its alignment with UT Tyler Health Science Center and UT Health East Texas, UT Tyler has unified these entities to serve Texas with quality education, cutting-edge research and excellent patient care. Classified by Carnegie as a doctoral research institution and by U.S. News & World Report as a national university, UT Tyler has campuses in Tyler, Longview, Palestine and Houston.